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Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is closing the gap with former President Donald Trump in Iowa. New polling shows her down by just 4 points in the red-leaning state.

Trump, the GOP’s presidential nominee, handily won Iowa in 2016 by nearly 10 points and again in 2020 by more than 8 points. A June poll in Iowa showed President Joe Biden, whose approval rating hit historic lows, trailing Trump by 18 points.

With Biden’s unprecedented decision to bow out of the race and endorse his vice president in late July, Democrats have seen dramatic poll swings. While the race remains close, Harris leads in many national polls, while swing state polls show her narrowly ahead, tied, or only slightly behind Trump. Polls have shown her closing the gap with Trump in several conservative states, particularly compared with Biden.

A new poll published Sunday morning by The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Harris has 43 percent compared to Trump’s 47 percent. The margin of error is 3.8 points, and the survey polled 656 likely voters from September 8 to 11.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment on Sunday morning.

Former Democratic President Obama won Iowa in 2008 and 2012, but the state has been viewed mainly as solidly Republican since Trump’s victory there in 2016 and 2020. The Cook Political Report currently rates the presidential race in Iowa as “solidly” Republican. However, the new polling suggests the Midwestern state might be in play.

“I wouldn’t say 4 points is comfortable [for Trump],” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., who leads the Iowa poll, said. “The race has tightened significantly.”

In 2016, FiveThirtyEight, a news and polling analysis site now operated by ABC News, described Selzer as “the best pollster in politics.”

The new poll also showed independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with the support of 6 percent of Iowa’s likely voters and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver with 1 percent. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race last month and endorsed Trump. Meanwhile, 1 percent said they would support someone else or were unsure.

Polls Tighten in Another Conservative State

Relatedly, a poll released last week by Alaska Survey Research showed Harris only narrowly behind Trump in the Northwestern state. The Alaska poll from September 11 to 12 showed the Democrat down by 5 points with likely voters. Harris had the support of 42 percent of respondents, whereas Trump had the backing of 47 percent.

The GOP has won Alaska in every presidential election since 1964, carrying the state by comfortable double-digit margins in recent cycles. Trump’s margin did shrink in Alaska between 2016 and 2020. In his first election against Hillary Clinton, he carried the state by nearly 15 points, but that lead decreased to 10 points when he was up against Biden.

What National and Swing State Polling Shows

Nationally, Harris appears to be narrowly ahead of Trump. Pollster Nate Silver‘s polling average shows the vice president with 48.3 percent support compared to the former president’s 46.2 percent as of Saturday. FiveThirtyEight’s average on Saturday showed Harris at 48.1 percent and Trump at 45.4 percent.

According to Silver’s average, in the critical swing states, Harris narrowly leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona, with the candidates tied in North Carolina and Nevada.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has Harris up by slim margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Trump is narrowly ahead in Arizona and Georgia, while FiveThirtyEight shows the candidates tied in North Carolina.

Update 9/15/24 at 9:58 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information and context.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-striking-distance-donald-trump-iowa-poll-1954031